# 2026-05-21 completion smoke calibration

## Scope
- CRM: `http://127.0.0.1:18100`
- Fresh host: `http://127.0.0.1:18097`
- Script head: `scripts/import_remote43_provider.sh` with managed subscription probe key + local `PACK_PATH` default fix

## Latest real-host artifacts
- DeepSeek: `artifacts/real-host-acceptance/20260521_064403_remote43_deepseek_key_import`
- MiniMax: `artifacts/real-host-acceptance/20260521_064454_remote43_minimax_key_import`

## Verified facts
1. Acceptance-harness false negative fixed
   - Both latest artifacts now show `09-models.headers.txt = HTTP 200`
   - Both latest artifacts show correct target models in `10-models.body.json`
   - DeepSeek `08-subscription-group-state.json` and MiniMax counterpart now show real managed user / subscription / key bound to the imported subscription group when the script points at the correct fresh-host Postgres/Redis containers.

2. CRM/import closure still reports success
   - DeepSeek latest import: `batch_id=11`, `access_status=subscription_ready`, `latest_access_status=subscription_ready`
   - MiniMax latest import: `batch_id=12`, `access_status=subscription_ready`, `latest_access_status=subscription_ready`

3. Real completion smoke still fails
   - DeepSeek host-managed key: `/v1/chat/completions` returns `502 upstream_error` (`Upstream service temporarily unavailable`)
   - MiniMax host-managed key: `/v1/chat/completions` returns `502 upstream_error` (`Upstream access forbidden, please contact administrator`)

4. Upstream direct probe split proves two different blocker classes
   - DeepSeek upstream direct probe against `https://aitoken.quanfuli.cn/v1`
     - `/models`: HTTP 200
     - `/chat/completions`: HTTP 200
     - Therefore the host-side 502 is not explained by an unusable upstream key alone.
   - MiniMax upstream direct probe against `https://v2.aicodee.com/v1`
     - `/models`: HTTP 200
     - `/chat/completions`: HTTP 403 `insufficient_user_quota`
     - Therefore the current MiniMax validation key is not usable for real completion traffic.

## Current conclusion
- `subscription_ready` + `/v1/models` success is no longer enough to claim full provider acceptance.
- The previous script-level `401 Unauthorized` diagnosis is closed.
- The active real-environment blocker has moved to completion-smoke truth:
  - DeepSeek: host-side completion compatibility still unresolved
  - MiniMax: validation key/quota not sufficient for completion traffic

## Gate impact
- Code gate: PASS
- Real import/access-closure gate: PASS
- Real completion-smoke gate: FAIL
- Overall: not `APPROVED` for full end-to-end provider traffic acceptance